Some in the United States may believe Vice President Vance’s claims that the MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) with the Iranian regime can bring about true regional peace. This is not, however, how it is being viewed in the Middle East, where the MOU is generally seen as a surrender to the Iranian regime’s demands and a failure of will on the part of the President of the United States. Nor do many in the region believe that, having been given the money and sanctions relief they wanted up front, Iran will change its behavior 60 days down the road.
Likewise, the administration’s contention that Iran will be judged on its adherence to the agreement is unconvincing, as Iran has not agreed to anything concrete. The United States, on the other hand, is lifting sanctions, allowing the resumption of Iranian oil exports, unfreezing Iranian assets, promising $300 billion in additional aid, and accepting future Iranian control over the Straits of Hormuz. In other words, Iran will receive large sums of money immediately in exchange for a promise to discuss the nuclear issue in the future. Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for terrorist proxies are not even on the table. President Trump abandoned these original key war goals and now says it is acceptable for Iran to have some missiles and enrich uranium.
The Gulf Arab States
Even prior to the publication of the MOU, the Gulf States had concluded that they could no longer count on the United States to protect them from Iran. It is reported that, to end Iranian missile attacks, the United Arab Emirates has begun transferring billions of dollars in previously frozen assets to Iran, although the UAE has denied this. The Gulf States have read the writing on the wall and now bow to Iran.
The Iranian regime not only survived but claims victory for having stood up to Israel and the United States. President Trump and Vice President Vance insist that none of the additional $300 billion promised to Iran will come from the United States. Apparently, we expect the Gulf States to pay Iran for having bombarded them for months. There is no provision for reimbursement for the damage Iran and its proxies have inflicted on the Gulf States or Israel.
Iran
The agreement is a grim betrayal of the people of Iran, to whom Trump promised that “help is on the way.” Trump’s promise proved hollow, and the Iranian people are once again at the mercy of a regime that gunned down more than 40,000 people in the streets. Now that the Trump administration has legitimized the regime, its arrests, torture, and executions can be expected to intensify. Iranians will remember this betrayal by the United States.
Lebanon
Most Lebanese were hoping for an end to Hezbollah’s reign of terror. Instead, the MOU legitimizes Iran’s control over Lebanon through its proxy. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told CNN, “We are fed up and we want to live in peace,” and that the Lebanese people “deserve to live in peace and in dignity; they deserve not to see their homes being destroyed every five to 10 years.” Addressing Iran, he said, “It’s not your country; it’s our country.”
Iran has already announced that it will rearm and rebuild Hezbollah with the vast sums of money it will now receive under the MOU, and Lebanese hopes of freedom are crushed. The Lebanese, too, will not soon forget this betrayal.
Israel
Both the Israeli government and the opposition see the MOU as a shocking betrayal by President Trump. Only 17% of Israelis support the agreement, according to a recent poll. Israelis do not understand why President Trump would surrender to the Iranian regime’s maximum demands following what Trump himself called our “total and complete victory.” Israelis see this agreement as a grave strategic threat and as a repudiation of the hard-earned military achievements for which they sacrificed 2,000 dead, suffered 18,000 wounded, and endured significant damage.
President Trump has a history of betraying those loyal to him: Jeff Sessions, Mark Esper, Steve Bannon, and most recently Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi. However, his recent turn against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is particularly shocking, coming directly after the unprecedented cooperation and success of Israel and the United States in the war with Iran. Trump told Axios that Netanyahu “has no fucking judgment” and said he was “fucking crazy” and that “everyone hates you” during a recent phone call. Prime Minister Netanyahu did not respond to Trump’s insults in order to avoid a rift with Israel’s most important ally, but Israel, our most important ally in the region, will never again have the same faith and trust in the United States.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is in the midst of a reelection campaign, regarding which Trump said, “I would most likely endorse him, but I have to see who else is running.” However, Trump no longer has the almost 80% approval rating he once enjoyed among Israelis. On the contrary, following the MOU, Trump’s endorsement could now be the kiss of death for any Israeli politician. The ruling Likud party has discarded its planned campaign of running on Netanyahu’s close relationship with President Trump and is now campaigning on standing up to him.
Outside the Middle East
The Europeans have also criticized the MOU. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said, “It’s a shame he (Trump) doesn’t show the same resolve toward the enemies of the West and toward the enemies of the United States.” The French Foreign Minister stated, “For Iran and its regime to stop being a source of instability, a threat to its surroundings, it is essential that not only the nuclear program be addressed, but also its missile program.” He also cited the Iranian regime’s destabilizing support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi terrorist organization, all of which were ignored in the MOU. “Without these problems being resolved, unfortunately, with an agreement or without an agreement, with negotiations or without negotiations, in Switzerland or not in Switzerland, the instability will continue.” When even the Europeans see the United States as too soft on Iran, we need to question our policy.
President Trump’s betrayal of Israel is only the latest in a history of U.S. abandonment of allies since World War II, from South Vietnam to Afghanistan, Georgia, and the Kurds. The betrayal of Israel is exponentially worse and will have grave consequences elsewhere in the world. Putin immediately signed an agreement to sell Iran helicopters following publication of the MOU. The Taiwanese may conclude that they cannot count on the United States to protect them from a Chinese takeover. North Korea, Turkey, Qatar, and other bad actors may now be emboldened to pursue their anti-American and anti-Israel policies.
If Iran can control and toll the Straits of Hormuz, countries throughout the world may do likewise, and international trade and maritime security will suffer. If the United States can turn so abruptly on our loyal ally Israel, who will ally with us in the future? The MOU destroys U.S. credibility with our allies and deterrence against our enemies, and the world will be a far more dangerous place because of it.
Devin Sper 